This Week's Edges — NFL

Pulls this week's upcoming games and live odds automatically, runs them through the same Elo probability model from the Model tab, and shows only the ones with a positive-EV edge — sized at your current bankroll. Nothing here is entered by hand.

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Watch out: A simple model that disagrees wildly with a real sportsbook's price is far more likely to be wrong than to have found free money — especially on lopsided "buy game" matchups. Picks where the model differs from the market by more than 15 points, or where it thinks a team is more than 2× as likely to win as the market does (a near-certain market price still has real information the model can miss), are never shown as a bet recommendation — they land in the flagged list below instead, as a limitation to understand, not an opportunity to act on.

Bankroll (from tracker)

$10,000

Stake sizing:

Fetching this week's schedule and odds from ESPN — this can take a few seconds since odds are checked one game at a time.

This reuses the same simplified probability model from the Model tab — no injuries, weather, or roster changes factored in. Odds come from one sportsbook via ESPN's public (unofficial) API, which can change or go down without notice. Treat every row here as a starting point to sanity-check, not a guarantee. The "Season so far" line under each matchup is computed from the same archive the model trains on, so it always matches what actually drove the prediction.